WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130221ZJUL2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 21.0N3 129.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N3 129.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 21.4N7 127.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.2N6 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 23.0N5 123.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 23.8N3 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 25.6N3 118.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 21.1N4 129.0E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 130530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TD 12W HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 12W IS EXITING AN AREA OF HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS DO NOT INITIALIZE WELL
ON THE SYSTEM OR INDICATE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 130151ZJUL2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 130230) NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0,
132100Z7, 140300Z8 AND 140900Z4.//
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