WDPN32 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TINGTING) /WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 031200Z6 TO 051200Z8 JUL 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS, AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ENTRAINMENT OF COLD, DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DEEP CONVECTION IS ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. B. TS 11W IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT COMPLETES TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 11W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL LOW AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/BOWER/FJELD/VOHS// NNNN