WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TINGTING)
/WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 030000Z3 TO 050000Z5 JUL 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515
NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
BY THE 24 TO 36 HR TAU, TS 11W WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDS. TS 11W WILL BECOME
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR,
JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INTENSITY AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/HEATH/FUNK//
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