WDPN32 PGTW 020300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TINGTING)
/WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z2 TO 040000Z4 JUL 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TINGTING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
420 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
012330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT 
AMSU-B PASS, INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRUSION IS WRAPPING INTO THE 
SYSTEM. 
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG 
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE MID-PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR,
JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO IN
TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION, BUT VARY IN TRACK SPEED. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. 
   C. TS 11W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS,
BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE 
DUE TO WEAK DEEP CONVECTION, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/RONSSE/SCHULTZ//