WDPN32 PGTW 011500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TINGTING)
/WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 011200Z4 TO 041200Z7 JUL 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS AN IMPROVEMENT IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG 
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE MID-PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR,
JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO IN
TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION, BUT VARY IN TRACK SPEED. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. 
   C. TS 11W HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS,
BUT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DECREASE DUE TO SPARSE
DEEP CONVECTION AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. THIS
IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS PROVIDING FOR THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW IS CONTINUING TO TRANSIT
EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND TRANSITIONS
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

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