WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TINGTING)
/WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/ 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z1 TO 040000Z4 JUL 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 302330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
   B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG 
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS POSITIONED
IN THE CONVERGENT PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING 
FROM THE WEST. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS ENTRAINING COOLER, DRYER AIR 
INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. TOWARD THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE APPROACHING 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
AND TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH TRACK DIRECTION
BEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, BUT VARYING ON TRACK SPEED. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TY 11W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, 
SUBSIDENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT 
TRACKS POLEWARD AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//