WDPN32 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TINGTING) /WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z3 JUN TO 040000Z4 JUL 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77 AND 90 KNOTS. B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING EQUATORWARD AND TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREE- MENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. WHEN TY 11W CRESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA- TROPICAL LOW. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TY 11W IS TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 24 AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W WILL WEAKEN AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK// NNNN