WDPN32 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TINGTING) /WARNING NR 15// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z1 JUN TO 040000Z4 JUL 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77 AND 90 KNOTS. B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STEERING RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EQUATORWARD AND TY 11W IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK IN A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TY 11W WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN APPROXI- MATELY TAU 48 AS IT CRESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TY 11W IS TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W WILL WEAKEN AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK// NNNN