WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W 
/WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/ 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z3 JUN TO 031200Z6 JUL 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77 AND 90 KNOTS AS
WELL AS THE UW CIMSS ADVANCED MICROWAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77
KNOTS.
   B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STEERING RIDGE NORTHEAST 
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
EQUATORWARD OF TY 11W. TY 11W IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK IN A MORE 
POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, 
UKMET, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS 
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS 
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS. 
   C. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TY 11W WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 
APPROXIMATELY TAU 48 AS IT CRESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND 
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TY 11W IS TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W WILL WEAKEN 
AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

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