WDPN32 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W /WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 JUN TO 030000Z3 JUL 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL STAGES OF EYE FORMATION AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STEERING RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS MOVING EAST, REORIENTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EQUATORWARD OF TY 11W. TY 11W IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK IN A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TY 11W IS TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT LINKS UP WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND BEGINS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//