WDPN32 PGTW 270300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W 
/WARNING NR 7//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 020000Z2 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED 
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED 
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. 
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 35, 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHLTY CURVED
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE 
STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH 
OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. LATE IN THE FORECAST 
PERIOD, THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION THE 
SYSTEM TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE AIDS OF NOGAPS, 
UKMET, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JGSM, JTYM AND 
COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST 
IS BASED INITIALLY ON PERSISTENCE AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF 
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR TS 11W HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED BY THE 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH, HOWEVER THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL 
GOOD. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTERS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR BALANCED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TS 11W IS TO REACH TYPHOON 
STRENGTH AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT LINKS UP 
WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//