WDPN32 PGTW 260300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W 
/WARNING NR 3//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z8 TO 290000Z1 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (TINGTING) LOCATED 
APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING 
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING DAMPENED BY THE 
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
   B. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT 
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 
12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK MORE 
WESTERLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DOMINANT STEERING 
INFLUENCE BECOMES THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5 
AND JGSM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
AND PERSISTENCE. 
   C. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//