WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE)
/WARNING NR 40//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 030000Z2 TO 060000Z6 JUL 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
150 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TS 10W REMAINS LESS ORGANIZED
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF TAIWAN.
DETERMINATION OF FIX LOCATIONS REMAINS DIFFICULT AND SATELLITE
FIXES FROM THE AVAILABLE AGENCIES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN POSITION.  
   B. TS 10W CONTINUES TO BE STEERED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN
24 TO 36 HOURS TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO ACCELERATE INTO SOUTHEASTERN KOREA. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS IT ENTERS THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS,
COAMPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 10W WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/HEATH/FUNK//
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