WDPN31 PGTW 020300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE)
/WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z2 TO 060000Z6 JUL 2004.
   A.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED IN THE VICINITY 
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS WOBBLED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER TAIWAN AND IS 
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. 
   B. TS 10W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD, STEERED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK OVER OPEN OCEAN AND 
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BY THE MID-PERIOD,
THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND INCREASE TRACK SPEED 
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 48, TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT 
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CHINA, THE 
MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN KOREA TOWARDS THIS LOW. 
THIS FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS BUT 
HEDGED TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID 
LEVEL JET AND DEMPHASIZING THE INTERACTION WITH THE MID LEVEL 
LOW OVER NORTHERN CHINA.
   C. TS 10W HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS DUE 
TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION, ADIABATIC COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE, NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A 
SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES 
NORTH OF TAIWAN AND OVER OPEN WATER. AFTERWARDS, SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO DRIER, COOLER AIR AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RADAR, FORECAST WIND RADII ARE 
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TS 10W TO TRACK POLEWARD AS
IT WEAKENS AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
   F. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TIMES IN PARA 2.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/RONSSE/SCHULTZ//