WDPN31 PGTW 281500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MINDULLE)
/WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z3 JUN TO 031200Z6 JUL 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 AS WELL
AS THE UW CIMSS ADVANCED MICROWAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS.   
   B. TY 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A BUILDING HIGH OVER CHINA AND A RETREATING HIGH EAST OF OKINAWA.
THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS KEEPING TY 10W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. IN
36 TO 48 HOURS, THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THAT
THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 10W WILL BUILD IN WITH
ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME THE RIDGING OUT OF CENTRAL ASIA. THIS
NEW STEERING RIDGE WILL SEND TY 11W POLEWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS,
TCLAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, JTYM AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, EGRR AND COAMPS REMAIN OUTLIERS TO
THIS SOLUTION, TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON EGRR AND COAMPS.
   C. TY 10W WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THOUGH ITS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW MAY BECOME RESTRICTED AS IT GETS CLOSER TO NORTHERN LUZON.
TY 10W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LINEAR TO
CONFLUENT WINDS ALOFT OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER ASIA.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 10W TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SEE TY 10W TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF TAIWAN
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. TY 10W WILL MOST LIKELY
REINTENSIFY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN OCEAN NORTH OF TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/KLINZMAN/HEILER//

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