WDPN31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) /WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z8 TO 010000Z1 JUN 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. B. TS 10W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DAMPEN INTENSIFICATION. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISIH AND IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD TRACKING TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL COL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO PERIODICALLY DECOUPLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUBSIDES AND ALLOWS TS 10W TO INTENSIFY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TS 10W CONTINUING ALONG A POLEWARD TRACK AND THEN TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A RIDGE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO BUILD. 3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//