WDPN31 PGTW 250300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE)
/WARNING NR 8//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 250000Z7 TO 300000Z3 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
810 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 242330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FULLY EXPOSED 35 NM NORTHEAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. TS 10W CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRON-
MENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
   B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, COAMPS AND
JTYM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER, NONE
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE INITIALIZING WELL ON TRACK INTENSITY. 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS.
   C. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DE-COUPLED FROM
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DECREASES AND ALLOWS TS 10W TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TS 10W SHIFTING TO A POLEWARD TRACK
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE CREATED BY A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY IN THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WEAKENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/BOWER/MENEBROKER/VOHS/LEWIN//

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