WTPN31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z9 --- NEAR 15.7N3 137.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N3 137.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 15.3N9 134.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 15.3N9 132.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 15.5N1 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 15.8N4 128.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 16.4N1 124.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 17.3N1 122.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 18.4N3 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.6N2 136.4E4. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MINDULLE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9, 250300Z0, 250900Z6 AND 251500Z3.// NNNN