WDPN31 PGTW 190300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (DIANMU)
/WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 240000Z6 JUN 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (DIANMU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED 
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. 
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 
KNOTS AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY PRODUCT. RECENT 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED 
CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. 
   B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA AND BEGIN A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE ISLAND OF KYUSHU. THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT ENTERS THE
SEA OF JAPAN AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET,
JGSM, JTYM, WBAR, TCLAPS, COWI, AFWA, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 09W HAS EXPERIENCED DIMINISHED OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS SHOWS THAT TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A
DECREASE IN OVERALL OUTFLOW RESULTING IN SLOW, STEADY
WEAKENING. TY 09W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND IN KYSHU. BY TAU 72, TY 09W WILL ENTER COOLER
WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN AND WILL START EXPERIENCING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 182119Z2 QUIKSCAT
PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TY 09W BECOMING COMPLETELY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONING TO A
COMPLETE EXTRATOPICAL LOW BY THE 96 HOUR TAU.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/BOWER/MENEBROKER/VOHS//