WDPN31 PGTW 161500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (DIANMU)
/WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 211200Z6 JUN 2004.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (DIANMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 155
AND 160 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM
SYMMETRICAL EYE. 
   B. STY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET, TCLAPS, COAMPS, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. STY 09W CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR NEAR THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
ENHANCED OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE EAST FILLS AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACKS STY 09W POLEWARD WITH A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE TRACK, AS THE TROUGH PASSES
EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 72 HOURS IN A LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/NOREN/FUNK/LEWIN//

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