WDPN31 PGTW 151500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (DIANMU)
/WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 201200Z5 JUN 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (DIANMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 130 KNOTS.
   B. TY 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD WESTWARD, CREATING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM,
JTYM, TLAPS, COAMPS AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 09W IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND AS A RESULT HAS EXHIBITED VERY STRONG INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. EXPECT TY 09W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACKS TY 09W POLEWARD, AS THE TROUGH PASSES
EASTWARD AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  
3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/NOREN/FUNK/LEWIN//

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