WDPN31 PGTW 141500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (DIANMU)
/WARNING NR 7//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 141200Z8 TO 191200Z3 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (DIANMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
70 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS DRIFTED EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 141130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW.
   B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WHICH WAS INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
AS THE TRANSITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES FURTHER EASTWARD, 
THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND PROVIDE A BETTER DEFINED, 
POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, 
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM, AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AFTER TAU 12. THIS FORECAST 
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE THROUGH TAU 12 AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF TS 09W IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACKS TS 09W POLEWARD AND MAINTAINS 
INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//