WDPN31 PGTW 131500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WARNING
/NR 3//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 160000Z7 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
120 NM WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT 
130900Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER WINDS POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEMS 
CENTER. 
   B. TD 09W IS TRACKING POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH FROM THE WEST WEAKENS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING 
RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STEERING RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE APPROACHING 
TROUGH DEEPENS. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A MORE NORTHWARD 
DIRECTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN RESUME ITS 
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ALLOWING 
THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM, NCEP GFS, AND WBAR, 
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE 
ON ITS POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS 
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE.
   C. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, 
IN A  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//