WDPN31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WARNING /NR 1// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 160000Z7 JUN 2004. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. A 122115Z2 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS SPIRAL RAINBANDS CURVING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. B. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA PROPAGATES EASTWARD. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN POLEWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. AFTER 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM, NCEP GFS, AND WBAR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A DVORAK NUMBER PER DAY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/HEILER// NNNN