WDPN32 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING /NR 7// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 101200Z4 TO 151200Z9 JUN 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, COAMPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. AVAILABLE MODELS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP TS 08W THROUGH THE MID PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION AT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MID-PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A POLEWARD SHIFT INTO A RIDGE WEAKNESS CREATED BY A MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/FJELD/VOHS// NNNN