WDPN31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W WARNING /NR 24// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 101200Z4 TO 120000Z3 JUN 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. B. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF JAPAN. TY 07W HAS INCREASED SPEED AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, HOWEVER A CONTINUED EASTWARD BIAS IS POSSIBLE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TY 07W IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, COAMPS, WBAR, AFWA MM5 AND TCLAPS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTANCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/FJELD/VOHS// NNNN