WDPN31 PGTW 100300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W WARNING
/NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z1 TO 130000Z4 JUN 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. 
  B. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF JAPAN. TY 07W HAS INCREASED
VELOCITY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 
HAS EXHIBITED AN EASTWARD TREND. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER, A CONTINUED EASTWARD BIAS
IS POSSIBLE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TY 07W IS
TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LATER IN THE THE FORECAST PERIOD TY 07W WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, WBAR, AND TCLAPS
ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTANCE 
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS EXHBITING A WEAKENING TREND CONSISTENT WITH 
STAGE ONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANISTION. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTHEAST OF
TAIWAN, CONSISTING OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND INCLUDING
COOLING EYE TEMPERATURES. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TY 07W ACCELERATING POLEWARD AS IT
BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
COMPLETES TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK/LEWIN//