WDPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W WARNING /NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z9 TO 140000Z5 JUN 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. B. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE SYSTEM WILL LINK UP AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. TY 07W WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST SYSTEM TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, WBAR, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. CURRENTLY, TY 07W HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECAYING SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE CI IS STILL 5.0 AND DE-INTENSIFICATION WILL TAKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND. E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TY 07W ACCELERATING POLEWARD AS IT BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COMPLETES FULL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 3. FORECAST TEAM: ARENDS/KLINZMANN/HEILER// NNNN