WDPN31 PGTW 061500    
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING
/NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 061200Z9 TO 111200Z5 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30, 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
   B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE EAST
TRANSITIONING TS 07W TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, UKMO, GFDN, NCEP AVN,
AFWA MM5, WBAR AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THESE AIDS FORECASTING TS 07W TO TRACK ALONG
THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF TAIWAN.
   C. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TS 07W
WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
TAIWAN DUE TO APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 07W WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 052331Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS
AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TS 07W LINKING UP WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND TRANSITION TS 07W INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN AT THIS TIME IS EXPTECTED TO STEER TC 07W
TOWARDS THE YELLOW SEA. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/FJELD/VOHS//

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