WDPN31 PGTW 060300 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING
/NR 06//
RMKS/  
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 TO 110000Z2 JUN 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. 
   B. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL
PHILLIPINES CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP AVN, AND COAMPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
   C. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TS 07W CONTINUING TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE INTENSITY OF TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK/LEWIN//

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