WTPN31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 07W (CONSON) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 19.9N9 120.0E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N9 120.0E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 21.3N6 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 22.8N2 121.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 24.2N8 121.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 25.9N6 122.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 29.4N5 123.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 32.1N6 128.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 33.4N0 134.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.2N4 120.1E4. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED 8 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT EXPERIENCES SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1, 090300Z2, 090900Z8 AND 091500Z5.// NNNN