WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W WARNING
/NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 250000Z7 MAY 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
685 NM EAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
192330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A 192255Z4 SSM/I PASS REVEALS THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AFTER 36 HOURS, THE
TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD COMPONENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET
EGRR, GFDN, COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR
ARE IN ONLY MODERATE AGREEMENT. ALL MODEL FIELDS ARE HAVING 
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNTIL TAU 36. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON PERSISTENCE DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS.
   C. TS 06W INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY DURING THE
EARLY FORECAST PERIOD IN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF RESTRICTED OUTFLOW. AFTER 12 HOURS, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. MODERATE INCREASES IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER
36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES POLEWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TS 06W TRACKING POLEWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING
IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.//