WDPN32 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W WARNING /NR 15// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 241200Z9 MAY 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENAHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTON HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE. B. TY 06W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AFTER 36 HOURS, THE TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD COMPONENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET EGRR, GFDN, COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN ONLY MODERATE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON PERSISTENCE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. C. TY 06W IS FORECAST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD IN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF RESTRICTED OUTFLOW. AFTER 12 HOURS, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. MODERATE INCREASES IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES POLEWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE FORECASTS TY 06W TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/MENEBROKER/FUNK// NNNN