WDPN33 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (OMAIS)
/WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 231200Z8 MAY 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (OMAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
110 NM WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 181130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
UKMET EGRR, GFDN, COAMPS AND AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON AFWA
MM5 AND WBAR.
   C. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE EARLY
FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FAIR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS SHOW
THAT TS 06W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
NORTH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TS 06W TRACKS POLEWARD.
THIS SCENARIO SHOULD SEE THE INTENSITY OF TS 06W PEAK IN 12
TO 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE FORECASTS TS 06W TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
LINEAR TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTH. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD SEE TS 06W CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/MENEBROKER/FUNK//
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