WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (NIDA) WARNING
/NR 27//
RMKS/    
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 211200Z6 MAY 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 105 KNOTS. A 
192252Z1 SSM/I SHOWS EROSION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.
   B. TY 04W IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS
TRACKING NORTHEAST AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER JAPAN. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP
BY THE PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEGUN
AND IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, NCEP GFS, JTYM, AFWA MM5, COAMPS
AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.     
   C. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/HEILER//