WDPN31 PGTW 180300    
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (NIDA) WARNING
/NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z9 TO 220000Z5 MAY 2004.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 172330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. 
   B. STY 04W IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN APPROXIMATELY
12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STY 04W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 48 AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALLOWING STY 04W TO BEGIN TO UNDERGO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, NCEP GFS, JTYM, AFWA MM5, COAMPS
AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. STY 04W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE GOOD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD CHANNEL AND AN EASTERN CHANNEL ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. STY 04W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN START WEAKENING AS THE
DUAL OUTFLOW ARRANGEMENT SUBSIDES. AFTER 48 HOURS, STY 04W WILL WEAKEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS STY 04W ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
AND TRANSITIONING TO A COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/VOHS//

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