WDPN31 PGTW 160300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (NIDA) WARNING
/NR 11//
RMKS/   
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 210000Z3 MAY 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. 
   B. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND WILL SHIFT THE TRACK MORE POLEWARD THROUGH
TAU 48. TY 04W IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48 AND
BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
EGRR, NCEP GFS, JTYM, AFWA MM5, COAMPS AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PER-
SISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCING OUTFLOW AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
EXCELLENT. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS AND EAST OF TAIWAN, VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR COUPLED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. 
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS TY 04W ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKENING IN A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

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