WDPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING/ NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 131200Z7 TO 161200Z2 MAY 2004. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLCC HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED WITH WINDS OF 25 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. B. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BECOMING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE RIDGE BY 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER THAT TIME. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. C. TD 04W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/HEATH/VOHS// NNNN