WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04W (NIDA) WARNING
/NR 31//
RMKS/   
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 221200Z7 MAY 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
44 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 202330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL THAT 
TS 04W HAS NEARLY COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   B. TS 04W IS RAPIDLY TRACKING NORTHEAST AND INTERACTING WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN. TS O4W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN 06 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, NCEP GFS, JTYM, AFWA MM5, COAMPS AND JGSM 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.     
   C. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT COMPLETES
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

NNNN