WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SUDAL) WARNING
/NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 180000Z9 APR 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SUDAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A
40 NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. 
   B. TY 03W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE RIDGE
AXIS. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD,
BECOMING NORTHEASTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AFTER
24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS OR DEEP LONG-WAVE
TROUGH, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TY 03W WILL NOT BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL DISSIPATE INSTEAD AS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
GFDN, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, AFWA, TLAPS, TCLAPS, JGSM, JTYM, AND WBAR
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK, HOWEVER THEY VARY
CONSIDERABLY IN SPEED AFTER 48 HOURS. COAMPS AND JGSM REMAIN THE
SLOWER GROUP, WHILE NOGAPS AND GFS MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 03W HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND FOR A SYSTEM UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   E. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PREDICTS THAT TY 03W WILL COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96.
RELEASED BY: LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KLINZMANN/KELSEY/VOHS/HEILER//

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