WDPN31 PGTW 081500
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SUDAL) WARNING
/NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z1 TO 131200Z7 APR 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SUDAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 
KNOTS. LATEST ENHANCED WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SLIGHT 
DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 03W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE 
THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL 
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE GIVING TY 
03W A NORTHWEST TRACK. WITH A POLEWARD TRACK, TY 03W WILL PASS 
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING 
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS, COAMPS, AFWA, TLAPS, TCLAPS, 
JGSM, JTYM AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTANCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 03W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST HAS TY 03W TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD 
AND INCREASING IN SPEED. TY 03W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 96. AT THAT TIME, TY 03W WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW 
ALOFT CAUSING THE INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY DECREASE. 
RELEASED BY: ENS DAMRON, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: DAMRON/KLINZMANN/VOHS/

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