WDPN31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 100000Z1 APR 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND BROAD, HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. B. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EAST CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTH- EN THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO TURN FROM A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN 12 HOURS. THROUGH 72 HOURS THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE GUIDING TS 03W NORTHWESTWARD. THE AVAIL- ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND JTYM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENJOYS GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR 12N3. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUSTAIN A WEAKENED RIDGE ALLOWING TS 03W TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER// NNNN