WDPN31 PGTW 041500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 041200Z7 TO 091200Z2 APR 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN IS WEAK-
ENING THE RIDGE AND CAUSING TS 03W TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU
24. AS THE TROUGH PASSES, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN
AND TS 03W WILL TRANSITION TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY
THE RIDGE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THEREAFTER.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, HAS TS 03W CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE WHILE INTENSIFYING
AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/VOHS//

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