WTPN31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 03W (SUDAL) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- NEAR 9.6N5 145.9E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N5 145.9E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 10.0N1 144.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 10.3N4 142.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 10.7N8 141.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 11.0N2 140.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 12.3N6 137.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 13.9N3 135.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.0N7 134.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.7N6 145.5E5. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SUDAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT RADAR REPORT OUT OF GUAM. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A RECENT RADAR REPORT AT GUAM BACKED UP BY A 060818Z3 QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT TY 03W IS ACTUALLY FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT INFRARED SATELLITE FIXES WERE SHOWING. WHILE TY 03W DOES NOT QUALIFY FOR RELOCATION, THE 06Z6 AND 12Z3 POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH TO REFLECT THE NEW DATA; HOWEVER, THE STORM MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0, 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.// NNNN