OTTUZYUW RHHMFWCXXXX XXXXXXX-UUUU--RHMCSUU.
ZNR UUUUU
O 191401Z MAR 04
FM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC//
TO AIG 6841
AL 6841
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS
USNS EFFECTIVE
BT
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 191500    
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 241200Z9 MAR 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TS 02W CONTINUES
TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, ESPECIALLY IN INFRARED. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LLCC
NEAREST THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
GFDN, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS (AVN), WBAR, AFWA, AND COAMPS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE EGRR, NOGAPS,
WBAR MODELS HAVE NOW LINED UP WITH THE AVN MODEL TO
FORECAST A RECURVE SOLUTION TO THE NORTHEAST. COAMPS,
AFWA. TCLAPS AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN CONTINUED
RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON COAMPS, AFWA AND GFDN.
   C. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN
INTENSIFY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASED OUTFLOW.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO
LINK UP WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST AND
UNDERGO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARDS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/PITTS/HEATH/VOHS//
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