WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W/
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 240000Z0 MAR 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 182330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCUL-
ATION CENTERS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE LLCC NEAREST
THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS (AVN), WBAI, AFWA, COAMPS AND
JGSM ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE AVN
MODEL IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
RECURVING TS 02W TO THE NORTHEAST. COAMPS AND NOGAPS
HOWEVER TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL STORMS NEAR
THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
   C. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OUT TO 12 HOURS. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEYOND 12 HOURS DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TRACK FOR TS 02W IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. TS 02W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/RONSSE/KELSEY//

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