WDPN31 PGTW 171500 SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (02W)/ WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z1 TO 201200Z5 MAR 2004. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. B. TD 02W IS BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. C. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER// NNNN