WDPN31 PGTW 161500
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W/
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 191200Z3 MAR 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
   B. TD 02W IS BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD, TD 02W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT STEERS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. 
   C. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE
TO LAND INFLUENCES AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE PHILIPPINES.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

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