WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W/
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 160000Z7 FEB 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS.
   B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. A LOW EXITING
MAINLAND CHINA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM ENABLING A WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TD 01W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST MONSOON. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, NOGAPS, COAMPS,
EGRR, JTYM, AND JGSM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE PRIMARY MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TD AND THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS.
   C. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INTERACTION WITH COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/KELSEY/RUIZ//

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