UNCLAS //N03145// PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST //SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT)/ WARNING NR 44// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 301500 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z6 NOV TO 031200Z6 DEC 2003. A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO JIMA,HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 26W CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP (GFS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. C. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ALOFT. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN ABOVE AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/DIXON/LAM/COOK// NNNN